With bitcoin’s price dipping significantly below $100k again, the “buy the dip” cheerleaders are out in full force.
But I’m here to offer a different perspective: Don’t buy the dip.
Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is investment advice.
Why would I say such a thing? Is it that I hate bitcoin all of a sudden?
No.
I have other reasons for making such a statement.
The first is that I’m trying to keep you from becoming exit liquidity for people like this:
Don’t worry guys.
— Breadman (@BTCBreadMan) January 8, 2025
The retards are coming. pic.twitter.com/1YL8keRHYa
The second is that I like to buy bitcoin when it’s truly selling at a discount, not just when it appears to be selling at one.
Let me explain.
Right now, bitcoin is trading about 13% off of its all-time highs. While that may be a significant discount for an asset in the world of traditional finance, it’s hardly more than a daily fluctuation in the world of bitcoin.
In the four-year bitcoin cycles, bitcoin’s price tends to skyrocket during the years of and after its halving. And then the year that follows tends to be pretty terrible for bitcoin’s price. During that year, bitcoin’s price hits a low, which tends to be in the range of the prior cycle’s high.
That was a bit confusing, so let me give you an example.
In 2022, the last “pretty terrible” year, bitcoin’s price dropped to about $15,500, which was actually about $3,500 lower than bitcoin’s top from the previous cycle — $20,000.
If something comparable were to happen in 2026, we’d see bitcoin’s price at approximately $53k (23% below the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69k). Now, that would be a significant discount and a dip worth buying.
I don’t share this perspective to dissuade you from continuing with something like a dollar-cost averaging bitcoin investment strategy (one of the best strategies out there for the average retail investor). Instead, I share it because if a loved one came to me and asked me if now was a good time to buy bitcoin, I’d say “not really.”
I try to maximize the financial upside (in fiat terms) of investing in bitcoin as much as possible for those who ask me about investing in it — especially those who are new to it. And while I could maybe help someone trade in and out of a bitcoin position in the next year or so, I don’t like to do this, as I encourage people to buy and hold bitcoin for the long haul.
But, Frank, the U.S. might announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and other nations may follow suit! And look at all the companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries!
Yes, these things are happening, and so are things like Bhutan selling bitcoin and so have things like Germany selling bitcoin and Tesla selling bitcoin.
And the following announcement was made just hours after I initially published this piece:
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US government cleared to sell 69,370 #bitcoin worth $6.5 billion seized from Silk Road, a federal judge ruled. pic.twitter.com/dGB7S9iO8T
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 9, 2025
Up until now, all bitcoin price cycles have been similar. So, while it looks like we have another year of bitcoin price upside in store for us, I think we drop far lower than this current price level when the tables turn.
And that’s when I’ll be proactively buying.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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